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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data indicating that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, although analysts suggest PVV is unlikely of joining the future coalition.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which previously achieved a shock top result and formed a multi-party all-conservative government that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in the polls and is projected to secure between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-member parliament.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's popularity has declined since 2023, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, and who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in June over a dispute concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.

Major Parties and Forecasts

At the end of a election period focused on issues such as immigration, medical expenses, and the nation's acute housing shortage, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, expected to gain between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive D66, predicted to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is expected to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to lose seats, with some experiencing significant losses.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just less than one percent of the national vote yields a party one MP. Among the 27 parties contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, for animals, basic income advocates, and sports parties – as many as 16 could enter the legislature.

This high degree of fragmentation means that no one party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions – often including several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the his party ends up as the biggest group yet is shut out of government. But, opponents and experts say that first place does not assure government participation and that any governing alliance with a majority is democratically valid.

While the election result is hard to predict and coalition talks may require months, political observers indicate that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is likely to be a broad-based alliance led by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, including those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, opened at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate post-voting survey is anticipated shortly after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will test potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must face a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.