How Trump Secured a Breakthrough in Gaza But Faces Challenges With Vladimir Putin Concerning Ukraine
Accounts of an upcoming American-Russian presidential summit have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Just days after Donald Trump said he planned to meet Russia's leader Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.
A initial get-together by the two nations' top diplomats has been called off, as well.
"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," Donald Trump informed the press at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a waste of time, so I will observe what happens."
- Trump states he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after arrangement for Putin talks postponed
- Disappointment in Kyiv as President Zelensky departs Washington without results
The on-again, off-again summit is just the latest development in the president's attempts to mediate an end to war in Ukraine – a topic of increased attention for the American leader after he arranged a ceasefire and hostage release deal in the Palestinian territory.
During a speech in the North African country last week to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, Trump turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.
"It is essential to get the Russian situation done," he said.
Nonetheless, the circumstances that converged to make a Middle East success achievable for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for nearing four years.
Reduced Influence
Per Witkoff, the key to achieving a agreement was Israel's move to strike representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a action that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but provided the president leverage to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.
The US president gained from a history of supporting the Israeli state since his initial presidency, including his decision to move the American embassy to the contested city, to change US policy on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, more recently, his support for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.
The US president, in fact, is more popular among Israelis than their prime minister – a position that provided him with unique influence over the Israeli leader.
Add in the president's connections in politics and business to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to secure an deal.
In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, the president has much less influence. Over the past nine months, he has swung between efforts to pressure Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.
Trump has warned to enact new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that doing so could harm the world's financial stability and intensify the conflict.
Meanwhile, the president has publicly berated Zelensky, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with the country and pausing arms shipments to the nation - only to then back off in the face of concerned European allies who warn a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the entire region.
Trump often boasts about his skill to sit down and hammer out agreements, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to advance the hostilities any closer to a resolution.
The Russian president may actually be using Trump's desire for a settlement – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a method of influencing him.
In July, Russia's leader agreed to a high-level meeting in Alaska just as it appeared likely that Trump would approve on legislative penalties backed by Senate Republicans. That legislation was afterwards put on hold.
Recently, as reports spread that the US administration was seriously contemplating shipping long-range missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine, the Russian leader phoned the US president who then promoted the possible meeting in Hungary.
The following day, the president welcomed Zelensky at the White House, but left without agreements after a reportedly strained discussion.
The US leader insisted that he was not being played by the Russian president.
"As you are aware, I've been played throughout my career by the best of them, and I came out really well," he said.
But the president of Ukraine subsequently made note of the timeline of developments.
"Once the issue of long-range mobility became a less accessible for us – for our nation – Russia quickly became less interested in negotiations," he said.
Thus, in a short period, the president has shifted from considering the idea of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to planning a meeting in Hungary with Putin and privately urging the Ukrainian president to cede the entire Donbas region – even territory Russia has been failed to capture.
He has finally decided on calling for a truce along current battle lines – something the Russian government has rejected.
On the campaign trail last year, Trump vowed that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has subsequently abandoned that pledge, saying that ending the hostilities is proving more difficult than he expected.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his authority – and the challenge of finding a framework for peace when neither side desires, or is able to, give up the fight.